TRANSrisk’s 3 year work programme focuses on 4 key areas:
Stakeholders Engagement & Participatory Scenario Development
Stakeholders are people working in the area of study, for example industry representatives, regulators and NGOs. In TRANSrisk stakeholders provide the link between theory and practice: we are using their insights to guide our theoretical, qualitative and quantitative modelling and analysis. We engage with them through means such as workshops, focus groups and individual interviews, where they help us test assumptions for quantitative models and assess synergies, conflicts, and risks of transition pathways. The stakeholder engagement work of our partners is being supported by development of a range of stakeholder engagement frameworks, expert-driven qualitative methodologies and supporting tools.
Synergies & Conflicts
TRANSrisk is investigating the co-effects of low-emission pathways in other dimensions of sustainable development, such as access to energy, security of supply, air quality, and impacts on water, land use and ecosystems. During the first year of the project this work focused on assessing the economic implications of policy inaction, including the role of permafrost thawing and the implications of an abrupt loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Following this work, synergies and conflicts are now being explored between different energy system pathways and other societal objectives.
Innovation Policies & Transition Pathways
Innovation for a low emission future often takes place along complex pathways with many different actors and incentives. TRANSrisk is investigating the potential action (or inactions) of multiple actors under different socio-economic and socio-technical scenarios, linking closely with our stakeholder engagement work. The micro-level implications of key technological and institutional options will be integrated with the results of macro-level economic and policy analyses. To assist with this work we have developed an enhanced stakeholder tool, alongside a systematic approach to explore key stakeholders’ position in value chains and their interests and capabilities to influence innovation and transition pathways.
Assessing Uncertainties & Risks
It is well known that climate change itself will impose many risks upon society, but there is much less understanding of the risks that different climate policies may impose upon society. TRANSrisk will expand our understanding of these risks, and how their perception by various interest groups and the public constrain different transition pathways. To provide a starting point for this analysis we have carried out a thorough literature review of risks and uncertainties associated with climate mitigation options.