TRANSrisk partner National Technical University of Athens, has contributed in an interesting paper entitled “Risk-based analysis and policy implications for renewable energy investments in Greece”.
The paper employs the expert-driven method of fuzzy cognitive mapping, a semi-quantitative modelling technique in which system dynamics are captured and simulated against different scenarios, in order to create the ESQAPE decision support tool. ESQAPE is an innovative decision support tool for building and simulating complex fuzzy cognitive maps for assessing policy strategies with the help of experts. An application in Greece shows that long-term energy efficiency measures focusing mainly on behavioural change in the residential sector – as opposed to services in the private and public sectors – are perceived to be more sustainable in a socio-economically optimistic future; this is not the case when challenges across the mitigation and adaptation axes are expected to be higher.
Find the paper here.