TRANSrisk Publication on the Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia

TRANSrisk partner Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) has developed an interesting paper entitled “Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis”.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the prospects for large-scale hydropower deployment in Ethiopia. In the paper the TIAM-ECN (the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, operated at ECN) and RIBASIM (the River Basin Simulation model, developed by Deltares) are applied in order to find the best energy mix, taking into consideration water availability based on the combination of water demand and supply functions modelled at the scale of river basins. The study projects a high level of hydropower generation in Ethiopia: between 71 and 87 TWh/yr by 2050 in a stringent climate change control scenario in which the country contributes substantially to global efforts to reach the 2 ºC target fixed in the Paris Agreement.

Moreover, an important message to the policy making scene is that Ethiopia's government, in view of its intention to heavily invest in hydropower, should be aware of some of the possible negative social and environmental effects of such a massive deployment, and that it takes stock of the potential consequences the large-scale use of hydropower could have on water users within the country and downstream, in South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt.

The paper is available online here.

van der Zwaan, B., Boccalon, A., & Dalla Longa, F. (2017). Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis, Energy Strategy Reviews, 19, 19-30. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2017.11.001.